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Duarte Geraldino, Narrating: This is "In Conversation" from "Apple News Today." I'm Duarte Geraldino.
Shumita Basu, Narrating: And I'm Shumita Basu. Every weekend, we're taking you deeper into the best journalism on Apple News.
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Basu, Narrating: Over the past few weeks, the U.S. and other NATO member states have been clear they will not directly intervene in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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[TODAY ARCHIVAL CLIP]
Kamala Harris: We are not gonna put U.S. troops in Ukraine to fight the Russians on the ground or in the air.
[DAILY MAIL ARCHIVAL CLIP]
Ben Wallace: We're not going to put British soldiers directly in conflict with Russian soldiers. That would lead to war across Europe.
[FRANCE 24 ARCHIVAL CLIP]
Mircea Geoană: No, NATO will not get involved militarily in Ukraine.
[CNBC ARCHIVAL CLIP]
President Joe Biden: Let me be clear: These are totally defensive moves on our part. We have no intention of fighting Russia.
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Basu, Narrating: Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is becoming dire. In the past few days, Russian missiles have hit multiple civilian targets, including markets, homes and a hospital. Ukrainian officials say some areas are running low on essential things like food and medicine. The U.N. estimates one million people have fled the country.
Geraldino, Narrating: Ukraine and Russia have agreed to temporary local cease fires. This is going to allow civilians to evacuate and vital supplies to get around the country. Still, many Ukrainians are calling on the West to do more. To put boots on the ground or to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Basu, Narrating: On today's episode, you'll hear two conversations. One with Zack Beauchamp, a senior correspondent at "Vox" who covers global politics and foreign policy. He lays out the role that nuclear weapons are playing here.
Zack Beauchamp: No responsible American policymaker could take the risk of the destruction of the American homeland, and arguably the entire planet, in order to stop the conflict in Ukraine.
Geraldino, Narrating: But we start with my conversation with Daria Kaleniuk. She's a Ukrainian activist and the executive director of Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Action Center. You might've heard her earlier this week in a video clip that went viral. She confronted British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at a press conference. She pleaded with him and other world leaders to do more.
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Daria Kaleniuk: You are not coming to Kyiv, Prime Minister. You are not coming to Lviv because you are afraid. Because NATO is not willing to defend, because NATO is afraid of the World War III, but it is already started. And these are Ukrainian children who are there taking the hit.
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Daria recently fled Ukraine with her children. Right now, she's in Poland. And she told Johnson about her family, friends and colleagues back in Ukraine.
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Daria Kaleniuk: I see that my family members, that my team members are saying that we are crying. We don't know where to run. This is what is happening, Prime Minister.
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Geraldino, Narrating: Daria told me what she was feeling at that moment.
Daria Kaleniuk: I knew what will be the response, but I felt angry and I felt betrayed. When Boris Johnson was speaking at the press conference, I was getting text messages. People were sitting in places nearby Kyiv with two kids asking me how to evacuate, and then they disappeared. And that is very surreal situation. And then Boris Johnson in Warsaw is saying that Ukraine is strong, that Ukrainian people are defending themselves. Well, yeah, Ukrainian people are strong, but Ukrainian children don't deserve to die in bomb shelters. And in a couple of days, there will be no supply with food, no supply with medications, and there will be no supply with basic needs for people. They will be dying, not because of the missiles, but they will be dying because there will be no possibility to satisfy basic human needs.
Geraldino: What specifically are you asking of the world and of Western powers?
Kaleniuk: I'm in Poland where the air defense systems of NATO are being placed. They are placed all across the eastern flank of NATO, and they can provide the protection of our sky in Ukraine. They can hit Russian missiles. They're saying, well, we don't want to hit Russian troops. We don't want to hit Russian planes. But these missiles are over the territory of Ukraine, the sovereign nation, and the sovereign nation is begging help with hitting these missiles. When we are talk, I have text messages from my friend who is now in Irpin, nearby Kyiv, in car with three newborn babies trying to evacuate these three newborn babies from Kyiv. And it's just one of many, many examples what's actually happening on the ground. And so, it is inhuman. It is non-Christian. It's against any humanity. And we are begging the West to protect our sky to be able to evacuate these children. Is it too much we are asking for?
Geraldino: The pushback from the West has been that declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine would essentially amount to a declaration of war. Now that move could trigger a nuclear response from Russia. What do you say to that when we talk about the risk of a nuclear event?
Kaleniuk: Don't call it war. Call it helping to protect the sky for Ukraine in order to evacuate Ukrainian children and provide basic humanitarian assistance. I'm saying that the risk of nuclear event can happen any moment now when Russians are shooting their missiles. The most heavy fightings which are happening now in Ukraine are in Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia region, which is near one of the largest nuclear power plants in Ukraine. And any second, missile can hit that nuclear power plant. So, it is immediate risk for NATO now and for the entire world.
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Geraldino, Narrating: Less than 48 hours after we spoke, Russia's assault near that power plant caused a massive fire. Russia is now in control of Europe's largest nuclear power plant. International monitors have said so far, there are no signs that radiation has leaked.
Daria also wants the West to more aggressively crack down on Russian oligarchs. These are the wealthy people who have profited from their close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some of them have served at high levels in his government. Some of them have helped to finance his grip on power and global influence. Part of Daria's goal with the Anti-Corruption Center is holding these people accountable. And you can hear that in her exchange with Prime Minister Johnson.
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Daria Kaleniuk: You're talking about more sanctions, Prime Minister, but Roman Abramovich is not sanctioned. He's in London. His children are not in the bombardments. His children are there in London. Putin's children are in Netherlands, in Germany, in mansions. Where are all these mansions seized? I don't see that.
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Geraldino, Narrating: The person Daria just mentioned, Roman Abramovich, is a longtime supporter of Putin. He is also the owner of the Chelsea Premier League soccer team, which he now says he's going to sell. He, like so many Russian oligarchs, own homes all around the world, including in London. In fact, London is so popular among these oligarchs that it's often referred to as "Londongrad." Now, historically, Western countries like the United States and the United Kingdom have allowed these Russian oligarchs to own homes, yachts, businesses and travel freely within their countries. Daria is urging the West to crack down. And this week, President Biden said that's exactly what he's going to do.
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President Joe Biden: Tonight, I say to the Russian oligarchs and the corrupt leaders who bilked billions of dollars off this violent regime: no more.
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Geraldino, Narrating: Following those comments, the Justice Department announced it's creating a task force to go after the oligarchs.
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President Joe Biden: We're joining with European allies to find and seize their yachts, their luxury apartments, their private jets.
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Biden: We're coming for your ill-begotten gains.
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Geraldino, Narrating: As Daria explains, this move is necessary because, while Putin may be public enemy number one, it's the people around him that keep him in power.
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Kaleniuk: He is a Hitler for us. But there is a system surrounding him, very concrete people who are oligarchs, Putin minions, who created Putin and who allowed him to grow into Hitler. And these oligarchs, they have a network of operation at the West. They used Western shell companies, they invested tons of money, billions of money robbed from Russian people into luxurious mansions, yachts, private jets, and they are all in NATO-member states. Their family members, they freely reside in NATO member states. Their family members are not in the bomb shelters. They don't care. And the West was tolerating all this bloody money from these Kremlin oligarchs coming to their soil and intoxicating their soil. They therefore are now guilty for what is happening in Ukraine. These oligarchs, they are war criminals. They assisted Putin to do now genocide in Ukraine, and they have to be treated accordingly. Their assets have to immediately be seized and confiscated, their families have to be kicked off NATO member states, and they have to go back to Russia.
Geraldino: We're seeing ordinary Russians taking to the streets in Russia to protest. They're risking arrest. And also, the Russian economy is also being squeezed by sanctions. Do you think that there could be enough internal unrest in Russia that it could be the beginning of Putin's undoing?
Kaleniuk: If there were millions standing up, there could be not enough police to surrender them and to put them into jails. But Russian soldiers and mothers of Russian soldiers decide that it's better to go and fight in Ukraine and die killing Ukrainian people than to go to protest and go to jail. So, they are in deep fear. And I'm Russian speaking. I read all different statements from even Russian democracy fighters. And they're saying, "What can we do? We are helpless. We can't do anything with our Putin." And it's such a helplessness. And some of Russians, many of Russians, they look propaganda. They watch TV sponsored by Russian state, which is insane, which creates like a parallel reality for them. But there are much more Russians who understand what is happening, and they are not standing up. They will not stand up until they will see that they cannot get cash from their bank account and they cannot buy anything from their stores. And probably then, they will try to stand up in millions. But it will take time, and Putin knows that. Therefore, he's now using heavy missiles in order to destroy as much as he can Ukraine and Ukrainians and paralyze us before Russians will wake up.
Geraldino: Given the level of military aggression that we're seeing in Ukraine right now, do you think the West misjudged Putin?
Kaleniuk: Absolutely. They were trying to use diplomacy to work with Putin. It's impossible to use diplomacy to work with Putin. The West was keeping doing businesses. The West was deeply caring of their own businesses, which had cooperation with Russians. But, you know, at the moment where the West started to put forward business interests than moral and humanity and basic values, the West became complicit and enabled this evil. Now we have to come back to the basic human senses and values of compassion and of the need to help of the person who is in need and of the country which is in need. The West is saying, well, we can't, we are afraid of World War III. But I want to say that the World III has already started, just not everybody realized that yet.
Geraldino: What does the world look like if Putin wins?
Kaleniuk: It is the end of democracy. It's different world. Forget about rule of law. It cease to exist at the moment when Russia started bombarding Ukraine. There will be no way to return democracy as an idea if Ukraine will fail. Other countries which are totalitarian, authoritarian regime will just follow Russians, and they will understand what is possible and what is feasible. Forget about free world. There will be more oppression. There will be more suffering. There will be more oppression of freedom of speech. There will be propaganda. Just imagine that entire world will turn into Orwell "1984" when we will not have possibility to receive information which is truthful information. It's very dangerous what's happening now in Ukraine for the entire world. And if you look on what principles America was built, it were the values and principles of humanity and compassion and the principle that you need to help to the person which is in desperate situation. And if this value will not be followed, if we will not receive what we are asking for, there will be more evil in the world and in America as well.
Geraldino: Are you worried that your own personal safety could be at risk because you are so outspoken at this time so close to the border?
Kaleniuk: Comparatively to what my friends and team are having in Ukraine, I feel safe. And honestly, if I'm able to deliver my message to the Western world, to Western leaders, and it'll be heard and the West will act, I don't care to die.
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Basu, Narrating: Daria Kaleniuk is just one of many Ukrainian voices pleading for someone to do something to stop this war from escalating, to save Ukrainian lives. But so far, Western leaders are saying further intervention is just not possible.
Zack Beauchamp covers global politics and foreign policy for "Vox." I asked him to respond to Daria's concerns. But first, I wanted him to talk about Russia's threat of nuclear and how that threat is controlling the dynamics.
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Beauchamp: Nuclear weapons, we are all sort of familiar with the basic way that they're supposed to work, right? Mutually assured destruction. It's that buzzword from the Cold War. That means if one country uses nuclear weapons, the other one will be able to retaliate. And so, nobody wants to have a nuclear war because it's impossible for anybody to win. So that is part of the reason why the U.S. and other major international powers have not even really seriously considered any kind of intervention, direct intervention, in the Ukraine war because if the U.S. were to get into a shooting conflict with Russia, a direct one, it wouldn't necessarily escalate to nuclear conflict, but there's never been an open, large-scale conflict between the U.S. and Russia since the advent of nuclear weapons. And that is a terrifying prospect because once a war starts, there are so many scenarios by which it could escalate to a nuclear conflict. Accidents, miscalculations, one side thinking the other one was using their nuclear weapons. A whole host of really scary scenarios, and no responsible American policymaker could take the risk of the destruction of the American homeland, and arguably the entire planet, in order to stop the conflict in Ukraine.
Beauchamp: But at the same time, if you think about that logic - this is the flip side that some scholars point out about nuclear weapons - Russia knew this going in. Right? They realized that they have a big nuclear shield that they can use to protect their forces and basically threaten anyone who might want to obstruct their intervention in Ukraine. So, it's not that nuclear weapons are the reason that Russia is intervening. It's not like that's the purpose of the war, but it gives them a layer of security and a sense of, not invincibility exactly, but a sense of protection.
Basu: Let's talk about some of the actions that the U.S. and NATO allies have expressed that they're not willing to do. Just talk through them. So, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked NATO to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and others have floated the idea of sending boots on the ground there. You have written that either of these things would be catastrophic. Can you explain why?
Beauchamp: Yes. So, people often misunderstand what a no-fly zone is. Like one analyst that I've seen pointed it out to people describing it as like a magical umbrella that prevents planes from flying there. That's not how it works. What has happened in the previous times when the United States has employed no-fly zones is that you send American aircraft into the airspace of whatever country that you're trying to deny flight over. That's the point, no-fly zone. No aircraft fly in that area. And that means that if you wanna really enforce it, you wanna make this thing an actual no-fly zone as opposed to an on-paper no-fly zone, you have to shoot down planes that are there. That means Russian planes. A no-fly zone is not just like a neutral intervention in the conflict. It's not something you do to just protect civilians. It is saying you're trying to stop Russia from using one of its major military advantages in the war on Ukraine. It is intervening in the conflict on Ukraine's side. Basically, declaring war on Russia. That carries all sorts of different risks of nuclear escalation. And the aim would be to protect Ukraine and Ukrainian civilians, but the thing is that Ukraine is on the planet, too, and nuclear weapons have the potential to annihilate the planet.
Basu: My co-host, Duarte Geraldino, spoke with Ukrainian activist Daria Kaleniuk. And during that conversation, she was calling on the West to take tougher action against Russia. And she was also calling on NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. But she was saying as a humanitarian measure, not a declaration of war. Is that something that could plausibly play out well?
Beauchamp: All respect to Ukrainians on the ground. And I understand why President Zelenskyy and activists like the one you spoke to are calling for this kind of measure because their country is at existential risk. It could very well be the case, it may even be likely to be the case, that the Ukrainian government will be toppled by Russia. You want all kinds of help when that's the case. But there is no difference. There's a distinction without a difference to say a no-fly zone for humanitarian purposes or for the purposes of making war on Russia. And the reason is that it's enforced the same way: shooting down Russian planes. So, you can say what you're doing is trying to protect civilians. What you're actually going to be required to do to protect said civilians is to kill Russians. That's war on Russia. There is no difference here. It is a matter of semantics. And the Russian government wouldn't see it as such, which would carry significant risks of nuclear escalation. Again, Ukrainian civilians don't win a nuclear war. Nobody wins a nuclear war. I don't wanna sound like I'm using hyperbole because I'm not right. We're talking the survival of the planet, the survival of the species. This is not an exaggeration. It's not a game. This is what nuclear weapons can do.
Basu: And not just that, but that level of destruction, I think, to most people is literally unfathomable. I don't think many people really wrap their minds around what that means.
Beauchamp: Yeah, it's almost impossible to conceive of. What it looks like in the immediate term is hundreds of millions of deaths. That's the immediate consequence.
Basu: You're talking about this very, very fine line that the U.S. is having to walk here in order to show support, but also not trigger further action from Russia. One thing that we did hear Biden commit to in his State of the Union Address is sending troops to NATO's Eastern flank to support NATO allies. What is that meant to accomplish, and why draw the line there very specifically and clearly?
Beauchamp: So, I thought that was maybe the most notable part of the entire State of the Union because what Biden is doing was a really smart thing that you do in a nuclear crisis called "signaling." Because part of a nuclear crisis is not being able to understand the other side's intentions. You don't know what they're going to do, which forces you to take measures that may be perceived as threatening. And so, when the U.S. sends troops near Russia, you can see why the Russians might be like, are they preparing for some kind of counterattack? So, what Biden is doing is not only explaining the deployment, but he's explaining the reasons behind it and laying out extremely clear red lines for how and when the U.S. would get involved in a conflict. So, what he said there in that speech is, we are not sending troops to Ukraine.
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[AUDIENCE APPLAUDS]
President Joe Biden: But let me be clear, our forces are not engaged and will not engage in the conflict with Russian forces in Ukraine.
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Beauchamp: But he also said that any attack on NATO allies would be met with a U.S. response.
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President Joe Biden: And as I've made crystal clear, the United States and our allies will defend every inch of territory that is NATO territory with the full force of our collective power. Every single inch.
[AUDIENCE APPLAUDS]
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Beauchamp: That's a clear message to Putin, as clear as it gets, don't attack any Western forces or any Eastern flank NATO allies. No Baltics, no Polands, none of it. You can forget it. You keep this aggression contained or else. The logic at work here is that you need to be able to prevent the war from getting bigger and many more people dying without triggering nuclear escalation. And so that is a matter of calculation and a matter of basically prudential judgment about where it makes the most sense to tell the Russians they can and can't go. And the NATO Alliance gives the clearest possible dividing line: either you're in the Alliance or you're out of the Alliance.
Basu: Let's talk about signaling on Putin's part. What's the consensus among Russia watchers, Putin watchers, about what Putin is signaling right now to the world?
Beauchamp: So, Putin has been very clear about his willingness to threaten and saber-rattle when it comes to nuclear weapons and expansion. He said so in his speech declaring war on Ukraine, basically, that anyone who considers intervening will be met with something along the lines of consequences like you've never experienced before. And then he said, I hope you hear me. And yes, we all heard you. You're talking about nuclear weapons. We get it. And that's part of the reason why, I think, the U.S. administration has been so hesitant to get involved. The Americans know that Putin is signaling this, and they don't really want to test his seriousness, given the consequences. And then Putin put his nuclear weapons on high alert. What does that mean, exactly? It's not clear. Some nuclear experts have not seen any actual changes in the nature of Russia's nuclear forces. But on the whole, it seems that what Putin is saying is, we are very likely to consider nuclear use if you get involved in the conflict. Stay out.
Basu: So, when one country, when Russia in this case, has nuclear weapons, is using it as a sort of shield, trying to deter other countries from escalating or getting involved further, what options does that leave the rest of the world in responding to Putin's threats?
Beauchamp: So, you can do a lot of different things that aren't direct military intervention. That's the line you can't cross. There are a few things that are also unwise that could raise the risks really highly. A few examples that have been done include really harsh and punishing sanctions. It's really hard to overstate how painful these sanctions are. They're the kind of sanctions the world deployed against Iran for its nuclear program. The difference is that Iran was not tightly integrated into global markets beforehand, whereas Russia really was. And so international sanctions have much more bite when you depend much more on being part of the global market. Russia imports the vast majority of basic goods, a lot of the things that it needs. Being cut off from international markets has caused severe pain in Russia.
Beauchamp: One example, I've heard, it's just like a really striking little fact, is that some mortgage rates in Russia have gone up to 15, 20%. And if you think about what a normal home mortgage rate is, yeah, that's how painful things are in Russia. And an indicator of the sort of full-scale financial crisis that's being precipitated by international sanctions that have been unexpectedly strong. So, this isn't a minor thing. It's tanking the Russian economy. It's destroying one of the foundations of Putin's legitimacy among his people in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine. Again, it's just this really, really fine, nuanced line as to what kinds of things are likely to trigger backlash and which ones aren't.
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Beauchamp: And not everybody agrees about where to draw those lines. I think that's one of the really, really hard policy issues in this particular crisis. But it is worth trying to parse that out because the consequences of getting it wrong are so massive.
Basu, Narrating: You can find the latest coverage of the Russia-Ukraine war in the Apple News app.
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