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Shumita Basu, Narrating: Good morning! It's Wednesday, November 8th. I'm Shumita Basu. This is Apple News Today. On today's show, we're focusing on U.S. politics: From the latest election results and victories for abortion-rights advocates yesterday, to how the war in Gaza may hurt Biden's re-election chances, to the growing possibility of a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024.
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First, the latest election results. Among the typical state and local issues driving voters, there were some important national themes. And abortion was at the top of that list. In many races, it was either on the ballot directly, or heavily debated by the candidates. And supporters of abortion rights have a lot to be happy about this morning.
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Lauren Blauvelt: Abortion is health care and abortion access is the law of the land in Ohio.
[CROWD CHEERING]
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That was Planned Parenthood Advocates of Ohio leader Lauren Blauvelt at a rally, after numbers came in showing that the ballot initiative to protect abortion rights in the state constitution passed. The Supreme Court ruling striking down Roe V. Wade last year moved the reproductive-rights debate to state politicians and voters. And in every state referendum since, voters have supported access to abortion rights.
In Virginia, Democrats won big on an abortion-rights message, taking control of the state legislature. Candidates hammered Republicans for pushing a proposal to ban most abortions after 15 weeks.
And in Pennsylvania, a Democrat won a closely-watched Supreme Court race, after targeting his Republican opponent as too far to the right on abortion.
Many Democrats are looking at the victories in Virginia and Pennsylvania as a path to more wins in higher-stakes races next year. Abortion is seen as an issue that will turn out progressive voters, who will drive up votes for Biden, and other Democrats down the ballot.
The party's also celebrating a win in deep-red Kentucky, another race we mentioned this week. Democratic incumbent Governor Andy Beshear fought off his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron.
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Andy Beshear: Tonight, Kentucky made a choice. A choice not to move to the right or the left, but to move forward for every single family.
[CROWD CHEERING]
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Yesterday wasn't a total landslide for Democrats. Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves won a second term. We talked about how Democratic nominee Brandon Presley sought to win in the deeply-Republican state by turning out Black voters. But in the end, it was Reeves making the victory speech.
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Tate Reeves: I want to thank someone that I spoke with just a few minutes ago, President Donald J. Trump. I want to thank him. He was very, very adamant, "Please tell the people of Mississippi I love y'all." And I will tell you we're gonna make sure he carries Mississippi again in 2024.
[CROWD CHEERING]
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Elsewhere in the country, Rhode Island elected its first Black representative to Congress, Democrat Gabe Amo. And Philadelphia voters chose the city's first woman mayor, Democrat Cherelle Parker.
And in Uvalde, Texas, a candidate whose daughter was killed in the Robb Elementary shooting lost the race for mayor. Kimberly Mata-Rubio was defeated by Cody Smith, who served two terms as Uvalde's mayor more than a decade ago.
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You can find more election results and analysis on the Apple News app.
Let's look ahead now to the 2024 race. With one year to go, President Biden faces a big new issue in the campaign: war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. New data shows Arab American voters who strongly backed Biden in 2020 are now furious with him over his strong support of Israel.
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Right now, Israel's military says it's operating with ground troops deep inside Gaza, along with launching more airstrikes. More than 10,000 Palestinians have been killed. As Israeli troops invade, they're backed by American weapons, American money, and American rhetoric.
The Biden administration has spoken about the need to protect civilians. And it supports an independent Palestinian state. But overall, many Arab Americans think the administration is tilted too far toward Israel. And a new poll from the Arab American Institute reveals the impact. The survey shows only 17% of Arab Americans saying they'll vote for Biden. That's a more than 40-point drop from 2020. Another poll focused on the battleground state of Michigan has similarly low numbers.
"Time Magazine" reporter Yasmeen Serhan is covering this collapse in support. She explains that while Arab Americans may only be around 3 million people, they're important to Biden's re-election chances.
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Yasmeen Serhan: What is significant about this voting bloc is that in a number of key states, and I'm thinking of states like Michigan, like Pennsylvania, like Georgia, these are communities that do have the numbers to potentially swing, what are, races that often come down to tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of votes.
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She points out that in all of those states, in 2020, Biden flipped them from Red to Blue. And in each case, his margin of victory was smaller than the Arab American population. Serhan says, the polling doesn't show a shift to Republicans among Arab American voters. But it does indicate that they may not turn out at all if the new trend holds. Anger at Trump's immigration policies and rhetoric may have helped drive them to the polls in 2020. But depending on how the war goes, anger at Biden over Gaza may be a stronger force.
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Serhan: Arab Americans, according to this poll, are signaling very clearly that saying, you know, we're better than Donald Trump isn't going to be enough for them. They're not going to grade the president on a curve. They're going to need something more to really animate them. And if they don't, they might just stay home.
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Now, let's turn to the Republican field for 2024. Tonight, five GOP candidates hoping to get the nomination will debate in Miami. And again, former president Donald Trump is choosing to sit this one out. He's consistently had a large lead over the rest of the field. So right now, "Wall Street Journal" White House reporter Ken Thomas tells us, a 2020 rematch is looking likely.
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Ken Thomas: There appears to be a collision course that President Biden and former President Trump are on right now.
And he says many people are not looking forward to that, voters or political insiders. Both parties worry that these candidates have unique weaknesses.
Thomas: I think on the Republican side, there's a lot of worry that Trump's legal problems will make him unelectable. And I think there's this fear, among some Republicans, that Biden is very vulnerable. But they may wind up, you know, nominating the wrong person.
Age is an issue. A rematch would mean Biden, the oldest U.S. president in history who'll turn 81 this month, against Trump, the second-oldest at 77. It's a small gap, but Thomas says, questions of age seem to be hurting Biden more.
Thomas: Voters don't seem to view Trump's age the same way they do Biden's.
Recent polling shows that this hypothetical 2024 match-up could be a very tight race. And it would be between two relatively unpopular candidates. Both men have high unfavorable ratings. Thomas explained some of what we might see if Trump wins the nomination.
Thomas: There's a long way to go. I think if, for Trump, it's, you know, "Do you miss me?" For Democrats they feel like as we get closer to, election day, when it becomes more of a choice, that voters will look at Trump as a real threat. And that, Biden, they hope, will be able to show more progress on the economy.
As Thomas mentioned, lots of people are weary of revisiting the 2020 election. But if nothing else, a replay would offer something for history buffs. This would be the first rematch of major party nominees since 1956, when Republican President Dwight Eisenhower beat Democrat Adlai Stevenson a second time. Also, Trump's attempt to get back into the White House after a loss has only happened successfully once in American history. That was done by Grover Cleveland, all the way back in the 19th Century.
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As I mentioned, you can head to the Apple News app for much more coverage and analysis of the election results and the potential 2024 implications.
And if you're already listening in the News app right now, and you want to totally get away from politics, stick around. We've got a narrated article from "Town & Country" about Chat GPT and how Al is transforming the way college campuses police cheating.
If you're listening in the Podcasts app, follow Apple News+ Narrated to find that story. And I'll be back with the news tomorrow.
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