WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.576 --> 00:00:01.076 align:middle line:90% [MUSIC FADES IN] 2 00:00:03.929 --> 00:00:06.719 align:middle line:90% This is In Conversation, from Apple News. 3 00:00:07.389 --> 00:00:12.492 align:middle line:90% Today… the most pressing 2024 election questions, answered. 4 00:00:16.027 --> 00:00:16.527 align:middle line:90% [MUSIC FADES OUT] 5 00:00:19.789 --> 00:00:21.657 align:middle line:90% Hi there. I'm Brian Stelter. 6 00:00:22.257 --> 00:00:24.162 align:middle line:90% For the next month, I'm going to be sitting in 7 00:00:24.162 --> 00:00:26.478 align:middle line:90% for Shumita while she's out on maternity leave. 8 00:00:26.728 --> 00:00:30.308 align:middle line:90% For years, I was a media reporter at "The New York Times," and then, 9 00:00:30.318 --> 00:00:32.499 align:middle line:90% the anchor of CNN's "Reliable Sources." 10 00:00:32.619 --> 00:00:35.198 align:middle line:90% Now I'm a special correspondent at "Vanity Fair." 11 00:00:35.698 --> 00:00:39.878 align:middle line:90% And my beat has always touched on media, politics, and elections, 12 00:00:40.229 --> 00:00:43.049 align:middle line:90% so that's going to be my focus for the next few weeks. 13 00:00:43.049 --> 00:00:43.549 align:middle line:90% [PENSIVE MUSIC FADES IN] 14 00:00:43.549 --> 00:00:44.782 align:middle line:90% For this episode, 15 00:00:44.782 --> 00:00:47.930 align:middle line:90% we are getting answers to some unavoidable questions 16 00:00:47.930 --> 00:00:50.000 align:middle line:90% about the upcoming presidential election. 17 00:00:51.439 --> 00:00:56.029 align:middle line:90% This election year feels really unusual for so many reasons. 18 00:00:56.308 --> 00:00:59.009 align:middle line:90% The two likely nominees are the same two candidates 19 00:00:59.018 --> 00:01:00.709 align:middle line:90% who faced off in the last election. 20 00:01:00.909 --> 00:01:03.659 align:middle line:90% One of those candidates, former President Donald Trump, 21 00:01:03.668 --> 00:01:07.699 align:middle line:90% is facing 91 criminal charges in four separate cases. 22 00:01:07.699 --> 00:01:10.720 align:middle line:90% And both men are the oldest presumptive nominees 23 00:01:10.730 --> 00:01:13.849 align:middle line:90% this country has ever had, though President Joe Biden, 24 00:01:13.900 --> 00:01:15.970 align:middle line:90% who is a few years older than Trump, 25 00:01:15.980 --> 00:01:19.279 align:middle line:90% seems to be facing a lot more scrutiny on that front. 26 00:01:20.160 --> 00:01:23.839 align:middle line:90% All of these variables are leading to some bizarre questions 27 00:01:23.849 --> 00:01:26.300 align:middle line:90% that we don't typically confront in an election year. 28 00:01:26.309 --> 00:01:28.891 align:middle line:90% For example, can a convicted felon 29 00:01:28.891 --> 00:01:30.779 align:middle line:90% become President of the United States? 30 00:01:31.029 --> 00:01:34.260 align:middle line:90% Is there a Trump or a Biden backup plan in place? 31 00:01:34.839 --> 00:01:38.900 align:middle line:90% And what about the usual trappings of campaigns, like debates? 32 00:01:38.910 --> 00:01:40.540 align:middle line:90% Will we even have those? 33 00:01:41.778 --> 00:01:42.278 align:middle line:90% [MUSIC FADES OUT] 34 00:01:42.278 --> 00:01:47.057 align:middle line:90% I posed these questions to Susan Glasser, Evan Osnos, and Jane Mayer. 35 00:01:47.057 --> 00:01:49.447 align:middle line:90% All three are staff writers at "The New Yorker" 36 00:01:49.447 --> 00:01:52.617 align:middle line:90% and co-hosts of "The Political Scene" podcast. 37 00:01:52.879 --> 00:01:55.300 align:middle line:90% The three of you have all the answers though, right? 38 00:01:55.300 --> 00:01:55.800 align:middle line:90% [ALL LAUGHING] 39 00:01:55.800 --> 00:01:56.472 align:middle line:90% Of course. 40 00:01:56.472 --> 00:01:59.061 align:middle line:90% We have them here under the table, and we'll take one out at a time. 41 00:01:59.061 --> 00:02:01.381 align:middle line:90% That's the way it's gonna work. Like props. 42 00:02:01.381 --> 00:02:03.275 align:middle line:90% Someone has to have the answers. 43 00:02:03.275 --> 00:02:05.544 align:middle line:90% While they might not have all of the answers, 44 00:02:05.544 --> 00:02:07.874 align:middle line:90% these veteran reporters have a lot of them. 45 00:02:08.149 --> 00:02:10.970 align:middle line:90% Susan co-authored a book about Trump's first term. 46 00:02:11.229 --> 00:02:15.630 align:middle line:90% Evan has covered Biden extensively, including a book on him in 2020. 47 00:02:15.639 --> 00:02:18.410 align:middle line:90% And Jane is the New Yorker's chief Washington correspondent 48 00:02:18.500 --> 00:02:21.289 align:middle line:90% and the author of multiple books on politics and history. 49 00:02:22.059 --> 00:02:26.570 align:middle line:90% So I started by asking Jane what are the rules around electing 50 00:02:26.570 --> 00:02:28.199 align:middle line:90% someone convicted of a crime? 51 00:02:28.279 --> 00:02:30.577 align:middle line:90% If Trump is convicted by at least one jury 52 00:02:30.577 --> 00:02:32.970 align:middle line:90% before Election Day, then what? 53 00:02:34.320 --> 00:02:38.240 align:middle line:90% He can still be president, even if he's a convicted felon. 54 00:02:38.250 --> 00:02:41.169 align:middle line:90% So he can still campaign. And he can still take office. 55 00:02:41.179 --> 00:02:44.380 align:middle line:90% I remember looking this up and thinking, this can't really be true 56 00:02:44.389 --> 00:02:47.449 align:middle line:90% when I was writing about Trump and then finding, oh my God, 57 00:02:47.580 --> 00:02:50.339 align:middle line:90% you can be a convicted felon and be president. 58 00:02:50.350 --> 00:02:50.850 align:middle line:90% Why? 59 00:02:51.022 --> 00:02:54.449 align:middle line:90% Well, I think that probably the Founding Fathers thought 60 00:02:54.460 --> 00:02:58.455 align:middle line:90% that the voters would have the wisdom not to elect such a person. 61 00:02:58.585 --> 00:03:01.414 align:middle line:90% And so it was kind of outside of their imagination 62 00:03:01.425 --> 00:03:03.074 align:middle line:90% that this would be a problem. 63 00:03:03.085 --> 00:03:06.544 align:middle line:90% But it is potentially a problem that we're all looking at. 64 00:03:06.554 --> 00:03:10.524 align:middle line:90% Actually, a real problem. And a lot of what pundits are spending 65 00:03:10.535 --> 00:03:15.054 align:middle line:90% a lot of time thinking about is how much would it hurt Trump 66 00:03:15.445 --> 00:03:17.535 align:middle line:90% in the eyes of the voters if he were convicted? 67 00:03:17.744 --> 00:03:21.294 align:middle line:90% Or can I suggest how it might help him with his fans? 68 00:03:21.445 --> 00:03:25.089 align:middle line:90% I mean, the polls so far actually suggest that it would not help him. 69 00:03:25.100 --> 00:03:27.369 align:middle line:90% Now, there's a huge amount that could be changing, 70 00:03:27.399 --> 00:03:30.190 align:middle line:90% but there is a big difference between what the polls tell us 71 00:03:30.199 --> 00:03:33.050 align:middle line:90% about an indicted president, which of course we all now know 72 00:03:33.070 --> 00:03:35.750 align:middle line:90% has actually helped him, and a convicted president. 73 00:03:35.759 --> 00:03:39.169 align:middle line:90% I mean, if you look at a composite of polls today, what it tells you is that 74 00:03:39.250 --> 00:03:44.020 align:middle line:90% it, a conviction of a felony would throw the election to Joe Biden, 75 00:03:44.029 --> 00:03:47.710 align:middle line:90% according to one analysis, by about 45 to 43%, 76 00:03:47.720 --> 00:03:49.869 align:middle line:90% meaning it's essentially a dead heat. 77 00:03:49.880 --> 00:03:51.509 align:middle line:90% Susan, what do you make of that? 78 00:03:51.949 --> 00:03:54.869 align:middle line:90% Well, I think there's a couple of observations there. 79 00:03:54.889 --> 00:03:58.219 align:middle line:90% One is that a lagging indicator, a leading indicator. 80 00:03:58.229 --> 00:04:01.298 align:middle line:90% Eight years of experience with Donald Trump suggests to us 81 00:04:01.309 --> 00:04:04.369 align:middle line:90% that while Republicans may say one thing in polls, 82 00:04:04.378 --> 00:04:09.059 align:middle line:90% when confronted with the actual outrage or, you know, shock 83 00:04:09.068 --> 00:04:12.818 align:middle line:90% or blown through norm by Trump, they find a way to justify it. 84 00:04:12.829 --> 00:04:15.645 align:middle line:90% And so, what they may tell a pollster right now 85 00:04:15.656 --> 00:04:18.506 align:middle line:90% at the beginning of the election year is absolutely unacceptable. 86 00:04:18.514 --> 00:04:21.855 align:middle line:90% There's no way I would vote for a convicted felon for president. 87 00:04:21.886 --> 00:04:25.476 align:middle line:90% By the time they're faced with a choice between the convicted felon 88 00:04:25.485 --> 00:04:30.406 align:middle line:90% who is of their party and the terrible, awful, horrible opponent, 89 00:04:30.566 --> 00:04:32.756 align:middle line:90% they find ways to justify Trump. 90 00:04:32.765 --> 00:04:36.446 align:middle line:90% So it's important for people to take some of those survey results 91 00:04:36.446 --> 00:04:40.523 align:middle line:90% with the caveat of, you know, we'll tell you when we get there. 92 00:04:40.533 --> 00:04:45.903 align:middle line:90% The other challenge, of course, with Trump and the question of conviction 93 00:04:45.914 --> 00:04:49.723 align:middle line:90% is this motivation of his base. He's been running this campaign of 94 00:04:49.734 --> 00:04:53.484 align:middle line:90% I'm persecuted, grievance. This is terrible. Look at me. 95 00:04:53.493 --> 00:04:58.123 align:middle line:90% I'm a victim of a system that's being weaponized against me. 96 00:04:58.183 --> 00:05:01.040 align:middle line:90% And, if that helps to motivate his voters, 97 00:05:01.050 --> 00:05:05.341 align:middle line:90% which has been one of the dynamics in the Republican primaries, in many ways, 98 00:05:05.351 --> 00:05:08.300 align:middle line:90% American politics has abandoned persuasion, right? 99 00:05:08.311 --> 00:05:11.260 align:middle line:90% It's no longer about trying to get the people in the middle. 100 00:05:11.270 --> 00:05:14.550 align:middle line:90% It's no longer about persuading people the rightness of your issues. 101 00:05:14.640 --> 00:05:18.260 align:middle line:90% It's more about motivating your own fervent supporters 102 00:05:18.270 --> 00:05:18.960 align:middle line:90% to get to the polls. 103 00:05:18.971 --> 00:05:21.890 align:middle line:90% So, it could be a motivator for some of Trump's base. 104 00:05:21.901 --> 00:05:23.580 align:middle line:90% I do think that's a real factor. 105 00:05:23.899 --> 00:05:26.679 align:middle line:90% I think a lot of Trump critics have watched him, quote unquote, 106 00:05:26.690 --> 00:05:30.440 align:middle line:90% get away with everything for years, actally for decades. 107 00:05:30.779 --> 00:05:35.079 align:middle line:90% And they wonder, is there actually a world where he could really be behind bars? 108 00:05:35.380 --> 00:05:38.649 align:middle line:90% Jane let me put this to you. Even if he is convicted, won't he appeal? 109 00:05:38.660 --> 00:05:41.429 align:middle line:90% Yes, I think you can say with great certainty, 110 00:05:41.451 --> 00:05:43.870 align:middle line:90% if he is convicted, he will definitely appeal. 111 00:05:43.880 --> 00:05:47.931 align:middle line:90% And I think if you look at other countries where leaders have been convicted, 112 00:05:47.940 --> 00:05:51.051 align:middle line:90% for the most part, they get things like house arrest. 113 00:05:51.111 --> 00:05:54.891 align:middle line:90% If you look at Berlusconi or they have to do sort of public service 114 00:05:54.901 --> 00:05:57.801 align:middle line:90% or things like that. I mean, I think it's unimaginable 115 00:05:57.810 --> 00:06:00.301 align:middle line:90% that he will be behind bars. 116 00:06:00.590 --> 00:06:05.840 align:middle line:90% But really, what Trump's doing right now is putting the legitimacy 117 00:06:05.850 --> 00:06:07.741 align:middle line:90% of the court system on trial. 118 00:06:07.880 --> 00:06:11.761 align:middle line:90% So that is why it is that you really can't predict, 119 00:06:11.771 --> 00:06:16.401 align:middle line:90% as Susan says, you know, whether his voters will see a conviction 120 00:06:16.451 --> 00:06:19.500 align:middle line:90% as striking him out. Because what he's doing is saying 121 00:06:19.500 --> 00:06:22.179 align:middle line:90% the judges are not fair, the juries are not fair. 122 00:06:22.649 --> 00:06:25.820 align:middle line:90% So this is a test of the rule of law. That's what this year is about. 123 00:06:26.260 --> 00:06:30.764 align:middle line:90% As big as we have seen. Don't you think? You guys? 124 00:06:30.764 --> 00:06:33.803 align:middle line:90% I do. I also think it's easy to forget, 125 00:06:33.803 --> 00:06:35.907 align:middle line:90% when we sometimes ask ourselves, my gosh, 126 00:06:35.907 --> 00:06:38.247 align:middle line:90% really, we're a democracy and we're going to be putting 127 00:06:38.247 --> 00:06:42.807 align:middle line:90% a former head of our government on trial. I mean, this guy might go to jail. 128 00:06:42.807 --> 00:06:46.136 align:middle line:90% What kind of banana republic are we becoming? But actually, 129 00:06:46.136 --> 00:06:49.586 align:middle line:90% the truth is, when you look at the history of other democracies, 130 00:06:49.586 --> 00:06:51.616 align:middle line:90% this is something democracies do. 131 00:06:51.616 --> 00:06:52.436 align:middle line:90% This is common, actually. 132 00:06:52.436 --> 00:06:54.350 align:middle line:90% This is common. Israel's done it multiple times. 133 00:06:54.350 --> 00:06:55.536 align:middle line:90% Some might even say healthy. 134 00:06:55.536 --> 00:06:58.921 align:middle line:90% Yes. Well, in a way, health is exactly the word, Brian, 135 00:06:58.921 --> 00:07:01.992 align:middle line:90% because it's part of the process of how you clean out 136 00:07:01.992 --> 00:07:04.441 align:middle line:90% a part of your system that is toxic. 137 00:07:04.441 --> 00:07:08.372 align:middle line:90% And this is why France has put a former head of government on trial. 138 00:07:08.372 --> 00:07:11.842 align:middle line:90% This is why Italy has done it. Israel has done it several times. 139 00:07:11.842 --> 00:07:14.521 align:middle line:90% And in some ways, the United States, we're a bit of an anomaly. 140 00:07:14.521 --> 00:07:17.081 align:middle line:90% And if we don't do it, the argument is that 141 00:07:17.081 --> 00:07:20.750 align:middle line:90% we are subjecting ourselves to the risk of losing that democracy. 142 00:07:21.019 --> 00:07:23.904 align:middle line:90% Remember that the reason Trump can, 143 00:07:23.904 --> 00:07:25.241 align:middle line:90% going back to Brian's first question, 144 00:07:25.241 --> 00:07:29.614 align:middle line:90% why can a convicted ex-president have the chance to return to office? 145 00:07:29.614 --> 00:07:33.974 align:middle line:90% It's because Congress failed in what the founders of the United States 146 00:07:33.974 --> 00:07:37.527 align:middle line:90% envisioned as the way to hold a rogue president accountable. 147 00:07:37.527 --> 00:07:38.616 align:middle line:90% And that was impeachment. 148 00:07:38.768 --> 00:07:41.920 align:middle line:90% Had the United States Senate convicted Donald Trump 149 00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:45.497 align:middle line:90% in his second impeachment trial, after the events of January 6th 150 00:07:45.497 --> 00:07:49.362 align:middle line:90% and his challenge to overturn the 2020 election, had they convicted him, 151 00:07:49.379 --> 00:07:52.101 align:middle line:90% it would have come along with a provision that would have required 152 00:07:52.117 --> 00:07:54.654 align:middle line:90% him not to be allowed to run for office again. 153 00:07:54.670 --> 00:07:57.879 align:middle line:90% So it was actually the failure of our constitutional system 154 00:07:57.879 --> 00:08:01.376 align:middle line:90% to work as envisioned by the founders that led us to this crisis 155 00:08:01.376 --> 00:08:02.178 align:middle line:90% in the first place. 156 00:08:02.210 --> 00:08:05.291 align:middle line:90% So, he could be under Mar a Lago house arrest. 157 00:08:05.596 --> 00:08:09.228 align:middle line:90% And be inaugurated next January, he may be on the hook 158 00:08:09.228 --> 00:08:12.716 align:middle line:90% for hundreds of millions of dollars in the E. Jean Carroll case 159 00:08:12.726 --> 00:08:16.515 align:middle line:90% in the civil fraud case, he may be having to hawk buildings 160 00:08:16.526 --> 00:08:17.555 align:middle line:90% in order to pay up. 161 00:08:17.566 --> 00:08:19.936 align:middle line:90% All of this might be happening and he might be inaugurated. 162 00:08:20.066 --> 00:08:22.276 align:middle line:90% Let's talk about the backup plan though. 163 00:08:22.286 --> 00:08:25.496 align:middle line:90% If not Trump, who could the Republican nominee be? 164 00:08:25.506 --> 00:08:28.985 align:middle line:90% Is there any world where there's going to be a contested convention 165 00:08:29.085 --> 00:08:31.756 align:middle line:90% or some other X factor happens on the Republican side? 166 00:08:32.900 --> 00:08:33.400 align:middle line:90% No. 167 00:08:35.460 --> 00:08:35.960 align:middle line:90% Really? 168 00:08:36.568 --> 00:08:37.068 align:middle line:90% [JANE LAUGHS] 169 00:08:37.549 --> 00:08:38.249 align:middle line:90% You know- 170 00:08:38.249 --> 00:08:38.847 align:middle line:90% Really? 171 00:08:38.859 --> 00:08:41.398 align:middle line:90% Well, we've all learned never say never, but no. 172 00:08:41.408 --> 00:08:41.960 align:middle line:90% I mean, we're- 173 00:08:41.960 --> 00:08:45.351 align:middle line:90% The thing about Trump at this point that you have that is kind of astounding 174 00:08:45.351 --> 00:08:48.661 align:middle line:90% is he's completely taken over the Republican Party. 175 00:08:48.661 --> 00:08:50.110 align:middle line:90% And so, what does that mean? 176 00:08:50.218 --> 00:08:53.479 align:middle line:90% I mean, the people who are on the Republican National Committee 177 00:08:53.489 --> 00:08:59.689 align:middle line:90% are his people. The people who bring the money into the race. And back him. 178 00:08:59.698 --> 00:09:02.568 align:middle line:90% They are his people. He's got the whole machine 179 00:09:02.648 --> 00:09:07.409 align:middle line:90% that is what it takes to get elected. And nobody else has that machine. 180 00:09:07.419 --> 00:09:09.989 align:middle line:90% There are even some of the richest people on the Republican Party 181 00:09:10.000 --> 00:09:13.080 align:middle line:90% are backing Nikki Haley, and she can't get anywhere 182 00:09:13.090 --> 00:09:17.700 align:middle line:90% because Trump's really, he's taken up all of the oxygen in the room. 183 00:09:17.710 --> 00:09:20.200 align:middle line:90% Right. It's his party. But you're saying people are here 184 00:09:20.210 --> 00:09:23.989 align:middle line:90% about Nikki Haley and Super Tuesday and going all the way to the convention, 185 00:09:24.000 --> 00:09:26.369 align:middle line:90% all that. You're saying that's just hogwash. 186 00:09:26.621 --> 00:09:31.820 align:middle line:90% Look, I think that Nikki Haley exists as a sort of in case of emergency 187 00:09:31.820 --> 00:09:35.510 align:middle line:90% break glass scenario. But in many ways, what her campaign, 188 00:09:35.520 --> 00:09:39.789 align:middle line:90% especially in its later stages, as she has become the lone remaining, 189 00:09:39.900 --> 00:09:42.080 align:middle line:90% uh, opponent to Donald Trump at the Republican primaries, 190 00:09:42.090 --> 00:09:46.190 align:middle line:90% and she's become a sharper edged critic of him. What that has clarified, I think, 191 00:09:46.200 --> 00:09:50.229 align:middle line:90% for people is what is the real state of the anti-Trump opposition 192 00:09:50.239 --> 00:09:51.390 align:middle line:90% within the Republican party? 193 00:09:51.400 --> 00:09:53.659 align:middle line:90% And it's not that big. It's, you know, 194 00:09:53.669 --> 00:09:57.659 align:middle line:90% I don't know, maybe 20 to 30 percent in most national polls, 195 00:09:57.669 --> 00:10:01.140 align:middle line:90% a little bit more in some states like New Hampshire, where she got 43%, 196 00:10:01.150 --> 00:10:05.619 align:middle line:90% a little bit less in many other states, but not a viable amount 197 00:10:05.630 --> 00:10:08.849 align:middle line:90% to challenge him electorally, essentially anywhere. 198 00:10:08.859 --> 00:10:11.124 align:middle line:90% So then the question is, if she has the resources, 199 00:10:11.124 --> 00:10:12.729 align:middle line:90% she could kind of run on 200 00:10:12.739 --> 00:10:18.630 align:middle line:90% as a kind of zombie candidate and hold out until the convention. 201 00:10:18.640 --> 00:10:22.010 align:middle line:90% In fact, that's definitely a plausible scenario from my perspective, 202 00:10:22.210 --> 00:10:28.890 align:middle line:90% in order to be available if there were a kind of a unexpected Trump event. 203 00:10:28.890 --> 00:10:32.389 align:middle line:90% One thing we have learned is that campaigns do matter. 204 00:10:32.470 --> 00:10:33.989 align:middle line:90% And remember, at the beginning of this process, 205 00:10:34.000 --> 00:10:36.650 align:middle line:90% Ron DeSantis was the guy everybody was all excited about. 206 00:10:36.659 --> 00:10:39.349 align:middle line:90% He turned out to be a pretty miserable candidate. 207 00:10:39.429 --> 00:10:43.760 align:middle line:90% Nikki Haley is, by any measure, the strongest alternative to Donald Trump 208 00:10:43.770 --> 00:10:46.340 align:middle line:90% on the Republican side. So if there is a, you know, 209 00:10:46.349 --> 00:10:50.179 align:middle line:90% break glass in case of emergency moment because Donald Trump is 77 210 00:10:50.190 --> 00:10:52.450 align:middle line:90% or he is out of it for some legal reason. 211 00:10:52.700 --> 00:10:55.219 align:middle line:90% She is quite obviously the attractive candidate. 212 00:10:55.229 --> 00:10:58.340 align:middle line:90% And I will point out, I've been talking to voters out in places like Pennsylvania, 213 00:10:58.349 --> 00:11:02.820 align:middle line:90% and I run into Democrats who say, I sure do like that Nikki Haley. 214 00:11:02.830 --> 00:11:06.352 align:middle line:90% So, she is a much more powerful entity if there was a scenario- 215 00:11:06.352 --> 00:11:10.190 align:middle line:90% I do want to point out just one final twist on this, 216 00:11:10.200 --> 00:11:13.359 align:middle line:90% which is that she has set herself up at this point as a kind of, 217 00:11:13.369 --> 00:11:19.440 align:middle line:90% I'm here in case of emergency alternative, however, because she has run against Trump 218 00:11:19.450 --> 00:11:25.065 align:middle line:90% because she has articulated positions that challenge his America first platform, 219 00:11:25.185 --> 00:11:28.625 align:middle line:90% uh, were Trump not be able to run in the convention, 220 00:11:28.635 --> 00:11:34.036 align:middle line:90% there would be a stampede, in my view, at the convention from the Trumpist forces 221 00:11:34.046 --> 00:11:37.176 align:middle line:90% to pick a more Trump-friendly candidate. 222 00:11:37.195 --> 00:11:39.246 align:middle line:90% And so that's another factor to recognize, 223 00:11:39.246 --> 00:11:43.245 align:middle line:90% which is that she only captures a certain one third of the party. 224 00:11:43.255 --> 00:11:47.151 align:middle line:90% And so she actually would be vulnerable even in an open convention. 225 00:11:47.151 --> 00:11:50.690 align:middle line:90% Who would you see waiting in the wings on the Trump-y side? 226 00:11:50.690 --> 00:11:54.473 align:middle line:90% I mean, you know, I guess Don senior would say, well, you know, 227 00:11:54.473 --> 00:11:57.586 align:middle line:90% keep it in the family. Don Jr. is ready to go, you know, 228 00:11:57.586 --> 00:11:59.427 align:middle line:90% look at him. He's ready to go. 229 00:11:59.427 --> 00:12:00.943 align:middle line:90% Well we know it wouldn't be Ivanka. 230 00:12:00.943 --> 00:12:03.345 align:middle line:90% She barely answers his phone calls at this point. 231 00:12:03.345 --> 00:12:08.067 align:middle line:90% Yeah, no, that is a fascinating dynamic we can get into. But the Trump family, uh, 232 00:12:08.067 --> 00:12:11.287 align:middle line:90% rifts in the last few years are something to behold. 233 00:12:11.287 --> 00:12:12.329 align:middle line:90% Let's move to Biden. 234 00:12:12.329 --> 00:12:15.070 align:middle line:90% I was amazed by this recent Monmouth University poll 235 00:12:15.070 --> 00:12:18.740 align:middle line:90% that found nearly half of the electorate thinks it's either likely 236 00:12:18.740 --> 00:12:22.810 align:middle line:90% or somewhat likely that Biden will be replaced as a Democratic nominee. 237 00:12:22.810 --> 00:12:25.321 align:middle line:90% You know, we know he's running, he's running a re-election campaign. 238 00:12:25.321 --> 00:12:28.610 align:middle line:90% He is absolutely running for re-election, and yet many Americans 239 00:12:28.610 --> 00:12:31.363 align:middle line:90% are in denial about this. What's going on here, Evan? 240 00:12:31.363 --> 00:12:34.457 align:middle line:90% That's a hugely important fact. In fact, if you talk to people 241 00:12:34.457 --> 00:12:37.686 align:middle line:90% inside the Biden campaign, their own polling is telling them 242 00:12:37.686 --> 00:12:41.707 align:middle line:90% that about, only about 20 percent of Americans believe at this point 243 00:12:41.707 --> 00:12:44.656 align:middle line:90% that it's going to be a contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. 244 00:12:44.656 --> 00:12:46.596 align:middle line:90% And here's the, here's the most amazing fact- 245 00:12:46.596 --> 00:12:48.753 align:middle line:90% Even though that is the most likely outcome. 246 00:12:48.753 --> 00:12:51.153 align:middle line:90% 20%. 20%. 247 00:12:51.153 --> 00:12:56.204 align:middle line:90% 20%. And so, the reason why that's important is that until you have a moment 248 00:12:56.204 --> 00:12:59.315 align:middle line:90% when the choice is in front of you until you're standing at the buffet, 249 00:12:59.315 --> 00:13:03.265 align:middle line:90% and that's it. It's either the salad or the hamburger. 250 00:13:03.265 --> 00:13:07.236 align:middle line:90% You don't have any real capacity to make an abstract decision. 251 00:13:07.236 --> 00:13:09.616 align:middle line:90% What if I don't want a salad or a hamburger? 252 00:13:09.616 --> 00:13:12.955 align:middle line:90% Well, then you can stay home, and that's a politically meaningful fact. 253 00:13:12.955 --> 00:13:13.455 align:middle line:90% And then you vote for Cornell West. 254 00:13:13.455 --> 00:13:13.955 align:middle line:90% No, I definitely don't want a salad. 255 00:13:13.955 --> 00:13:14.455 align:middle line:90% Third party. We got to talk about third parties on a separate basis. 256 00:13:14.455 --> 00:13:15.416 align:middle line:90% But on Biden, 257 00:13:15.416 --> 00:13:18.236 align:middle line:90% the idea that there's this, and partly there's a conspiracy theory 258 00:13:18.236 --> 00:13:20.766 align:middle line:90% out there on the right, that he's going to be replaced by Michelle Obama. 259 00:13:20.766 --> 00:13:23.016 align:middle line:90% That's not going to happen. She does not want to be president. 260 00:13:23.016 --> 00:13:26.117 align:middle line:90% There's also disinformation. There's also just straight up denialism, 261 00:13:26.117 --> 00:13:30.006 align:middle line:90% especially among Democrats who don't want Biden to be the nominee. 262 00:13:30.006 --> 00:13:32.537 align:middle line:90% So you put all that together and you get to the 20%, 263 00:13:32.537 --> 00:13:34.537 align:middle line:90% the idea that this is not actually going to happen. 264 00:13:34.537 --> 00:13:37.787 align:middle line:90% Isn't it also just depression about these options 265 00:13:37.787 --> 00:13:40.647 align:middle line:90% that a lot of people don't want to live in a gerontocracy, 266 00:13:40.647 --> 00:13:43.746 align:middle line:90% a lot of people want a do-over, they don't want to redo? 267 00:13:43.746 --> 00:13:46.327 align:middle line:90% I think that's a really important point, Brian. 268 00:13:46.327 --> 00:13:48.757 align:middle line:90% Right now, if you look at Biden's polls. 269 00:13:48.757 --> 00:13:52.057 align:middle line:90% They are consistently more or less the lowest polls 270 00:13:52.057 --> 00:13:56.706 align:middle line:90% that an incumbent president has had at this point going into an election year 271 00:13:56.706 --> 00:14:00.307 align:middle line:90% since the history of modern polling began even lower by some indicators 272 00:14:00.307 --> 00:14:04.432 align:middle line:90% than where Trump was at this point in 2020. And remember, 273 00:14:04.432 --> 00:14:07.122 align:middle line:90% that's not because Republicans don't like Joe Biden, 274 00:14:07.122 --> 00:14:09.093 align:middle line:90% they already didn't like Joe Biden. 275 00:14:09.093 --> 00:14:14.423 align:middle line:90% It's because Democrats and independents are unhappy with him as the choice 276 00:14:14.423 --> 00:14:19.233 align:middle line:90% or wary. Many of them are very positive on what the Biden administration has done. 277 00:14:19.233 --> 00:14:22.332 align:middle line:90% They're bullish on Democrats who have outperformed expectations 278 00:14:22.332 --> 00:14:25.692 align:middle line:90% in recent elections. So it does seem to be about Biden himself. 279 00:14:25.692 --> 00:14:30.867 align:middle line:90% And I think the qualms, you know, can be summed up in that scathing phrase 280 00:14:30.867 --> 00:14:34.427 align:middle line:90% from the recent special counsel report. You know, most Americans, 281 00:14:34.427 --> 00:14:39.227 align:middle line:90% Democrats and Republicans, I think, even, view Joe Biden as a well-meaning 282 00:14:39.227 --> 00:14:42.138 align:middle line:90% elderly gentleman with perhaps a poor memory. 283 00:14:42.138 --> 00:14:44.408 align:middle line:90% They don't really want that to be the choice, 284 00:14:44.408 --> 00:14:47.488 align:middle line:90% but that's also why you hear, and Evan's been doing great reporting 285 00:14:47.488 --> 00:14:50.539 align:middle line:90% on this, so much frustration from the White House, 286 00:14:50.539 --> 00:14:52.635 align:middle line:90% from Democratic strategists right now. 287 00:14:52.635 --> 00:14:54.650 align:middle line:90% They are like, wake up people, 288 00:14:54.650 --> 00:14:58.195 align:middle line:90% this is, the choice is the choice, stop living in the fantasy world 289 00:14:58.195 --> 00:15:03.344 align:middle line:90% where Michelle Obama is gonna come and, you know, she's not gonna be president. 290 00:15:03.344 --> 00:15:06.094 align:middle line:90% Or where Donald Trump is somehow going to be taken off the ballot. 291 00:15:06.094 --> 00:15:09.833 align:middle line:90% That's right. And that is the sort of comforting delusion on the other side 292 00:15:09.833 --> 00:15:11.663 align:middle line:90% that that's almost certainly not going to happen. 293 00:15:11.663 --> 00:15:13.932 align:middle line:90% But I think it's important to know that on a recent episode 294 00:15:13.932 --> 00:15:16.382 align:middle line:90% of your all's podcast. You talked about Jane's reporting 295 00:15:16.382 --> 00:15:20.752 align:middle line:90% in the Reagan era about Reagan aides, knowing that he was declining, 296 00:15:20.752 --> 00:15:23.692 align:middle line:90% uh, talking behind his back, talking about invoking the 25th amendment. 297 00:15:23.692 --> 00:15:26.882 align:middle line:90% And Evan, you say there's no indication that's happening today 298 00:15:26.882 --> 00:15:28.103 align:middle line:90% in the Biden White House. 299 00:15:28.103 --> 00:15:31.122 align:middle line:90% No, that's not the reality within the White House. 300 00:15:31.122 --> 00:15:34.922 align:middle line:90% Look, I will tell you, and you'll see this from a range of different people 301 00:15:34.922 --> 00:15:39.232 align:middle line:90% who have spent time with him, is that this is a town right now 302 00:15:39.232 --> 00:15:43.122 align:middle line:90% in which every reporter, let's be blunt, is looking for a story, 303 00:15:43.122 --> 00:15:48.071 align:middle line:90% an anecdote of Joe Biden not being able to fulfill the job of the presidency. 304 00:15:48.071 --> 00:15:51.581 align:middle line:90% That is the most coveted piece of information in journalism. 305 00:15:51.581 --> 00:15:55.161 align:middle line:90% If it existed, chances are it would already be out there. 306 00:15:55.161 --> 00:15:58.202 align:middle line:90% What we know is what we see. People see it on television. 307 00:15:58.202 --> 00:16:01.418 align:middle line:90% They see that his communication skills are diminished. 308 00:16:01.418 --> 00:16:04.807 align:middle line:90% They see, as Susan described, that, you know, he is a person 309 00:16:04.807 --> 00:16:08.197 align:middle line:90% who has a harder time getting through his speeches than he did before, 310 00:16:08.197 --> 00:16:12.697 align:middle line:90% partly because his stutter is coming back as he gets older. But what we haven't seen 311 00:16:12.697 --> 00:16:15.117 align:middle line:90% and nobody has shown it in any credible way, 312 00:16:15.117 --> 00:16:17.599 align:middle line:90% that this man is not performing the presidency. 313 00:16:17.599 --> 00:16:18.799 align:middle line:90% And that's an important distinction. 314 00:16:18.799 --> 00:16:21.559 align:middle line:90% And honestly, the people around Reagan, having covered him, 315 00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:24.434 align:middle line:90% did see that he was unable to perform the job. 316 00:16:24.434 --> 00:16:29.374 align:middle line:90% He was going off in the afternoons and watching television in the residence. 317 00:16:29.374 --> 00:16:34.254 align:middle line:90% They worried that he was losing his place, couldn't really read documents. 318 00:16:34.254 --> 00:16:37.444 align:middle line:90% So they actually kind of had staged a little test to see 319 00:16:37.444 --> 00:16:41.483 align:middle line:90% whether he was compus mentis. And he passed that test, 320 00:16:41.483 --> 00:16:46.079 align:middle line:90% as far as his aides could tell. But their worries were real. 321 00:16:46.079 --> 00:16:48.545 align:middle line:90% I do think though, to be clear, 322 00:16:48.545 --> 00:16:52.855 align:middle line:90% that while people are saying that Biden is able to perform well 323 00:16:52.855 --> 00:16:54.795 align:middle line:90% in the presidency, inside the White House, 324 00:16:54.795 --> 00:16:58.254 align:middle line:90% they are very concerned about his performance on the campaign. 325 00:16:58.254 --> 00:17:00.095 align:middle line:90% How can he sell himself? 326 00:17:00.095 --> 00:17:03.643 align:middle line:90% How can he get reelected? They're very worried about that. 327 00:17:03.643 --> 00:17:06.727 align:middle line:90% Jane, I'm so glad you brought that up. I do think that's an important point. 328 00:17:06.727 --> 00:17:10.017 align:middle line:90% A couple thoughts. First of all, Jane's amazing scoop in this great book 329 00:17:10.017 --> 00:17:14.413 align:middle line:90% "Landslide" which was about the kind of later years and the Reagan re-election, 330 00:17:14.413 --> 00:17:17.413 align:middle line:90% this was in the second term of Ronald Reagan, 331 00:17:17.413 --> 00:17:22.702 align:middle line:90% and I think a lot of the concerns animating many people in Washington, 332 00:17:22.702 --> 00:17:27.283 align:middle line:90% putting aside the voters or the polls is not where Joe Biden is today, 333 00:17:27.283 --> 00:17:29.594 align:middle line:90% but where he would be at the end of a second term. 334 00:17:29.594 --> 00:17:37.023 align:middle line:90% Remember, he's asking us to elect him to office so that he would be 86 years old 335 00:17:37.023 --> 00:17:42.084 align:middle line:90% at the end of his second term, and, to be blunt, I don't know many Democrats, 336 00:17:42.084 --> 00:17:45.174 align:middle line:90% who don't think that that is a fear and a concern, and it's not so much, 337 00:17:45.174 --> 00:17:48.544 align:middle line:90% you know, the White House has made a kind of a furious pushback 338 00:17:48.544 --> 00:17:51.493 align:middle line:90% and a spin about his age right now. 339 00:17:51.493 --> 00:17:54.564 align:middle line:90% And I, I actually don't think that's the heart of the problem 340 00:17:54.564 --> 00:17:57.044 align:middle line:90% and fundamentally you're talking about a political situation 341 00:17:57.044 --> 00:18:01.353 align:middle line:90% where they have a liability that they can't do much to address. 342 00:18:01.353 --> 00:18:05.093 align:middle line:90% In fact, his age is not only known, he's already the oldest president, 343 00:18:05.093 --> 00:18:07.993 align:middle line:90% but it is a factor that is likely to get worse 344 00:18:07.993 --> 00:18:10.041 align:middle line:90% and not better over time. 345 00:18:10.041 --> 00:18:12.939 align:middle line:90% I wanna say one thing which I think is important too though 346 00:18:12.939 --> 00:18:16.511 align:middle line:90% is that the standing of a candidate is a combination of what they have done 347 00:18:16.511 --> 00:18:19.297 align:middle line:90% and how they are perceived, and as an industry, the press, 348 00:18:19.297 --> 00:18:21.877 align:middle line:90% we are a little uncomfortable acknowledging our own role 349 00:18:21.877 --> 00:18:25.417 align:middle line:90% in this process. The reality is that we make decisions every day 350 00:18:25.417 --> 00:18:28.476 align:middle line:90% about the proportion of attention that we put on different issues. 351 00:18:28.476 --> 00:18:31.175 align:middle line:90% How many stories do we devote to the subject of his age 352 00:18:31.175 --> 00:18:34.246 align:middle line:90% versus how many stories do we devote to the subject of legislation 353 00:18:34.246 --> 00:18:38.126 align:middle line:90% that was passed? And you can be a very aggressive news organization, 354 00:18:38.126 --> 00:18:40.561 align:middle line:90% and you should when it comes to testing this question of, 355 00:18:40.561 --> 00:18:42.791 align:middle line:90% is he performing the job? Is he capable of it? 356 00:18:42.791 --> 00:18:43.942 align:middle line:90% How much concern is there? 357 00:18:43.942 --> 00:18:48.052 align:middle line:90% Are Democrats who are actually in a position of influence bailing on him? 358 00:18:48.052 --> 00:18:51.822 align:middle line:90% That's a separate question from then also saying, are we playing a role? 359 00:18:51.822 --> 00:18:53.992 align:middle line:90% That's a real issue. Look, the former public editor 360 00:18:53.992 --> 00:18:57.812 align:middle line:90% of the "New York Times" the other day, Margaret Sullivan, said she's concerned, 361 00:18:57.812 --> 00:19:02.721 align:middle line:90% that the level of attention on this question of his age is, 362 00:19:02.721 --> 00:19:07.601 align:middle line:90% as she put it, replaying the Hillary's e- mails experience of 2016. 363 00:19:07.601 --> 00:19:10.990 align:middle line:90% I mean, and it is, it is really remarkable that there's so little attention 364 00:19:10.990 --> 00:19:14.896 align:middle line:90% to Trump's age. He's only a couple years younger than Biden. 365 00:19:14.896 --> 00:19:17.431 align:middle line:90% His father, his father, we know there's a family history 366 00:19:17.431 --> 00:19:20.850 align:middle line:90% of Alzheimer's, and there's no evidence that Trump has Alzheimer's, 367 00:19:20.850 --> 00:19:25.021 align:middle line:90% but this is, it's every bit as much an issue about Trump 368 00:19:25.021 --> 00:19:28.220 align:middle line:90% as it should be about Biden, yet the press doesn't play it that way. 369 00:19:28.220 --> 00:19:29.021 align:middle line:90% Why is that? 370 00:19:29.021 --> 00:19:31.060 align:middle line:90% Because Jane as you've written about, 371 00:19:31.060 --> 00:19:33.800 align:middle line:90% there's this pro Trump propaganda machine in the media. 372 00:19:33.800 --> 00:19:36.249 align:middle line:90% There's nothing like that on the left. There's no version of that 373 00:19:36.249 --> 00:19:40.550 align:middle line:90% for the Democrats to rally around Biden and deny reality about his conditions. 374 00:19:40.550 --> 00:19:42.780 align:middle line:90% Brian, we defer to you on this issue. 375 00:19:42.780 --> 00:19:46.339 align:middle line:90% I mean, nobody knows more about the Fox effect than you do. 376 00:19:46.339 --> 00:19:50.829 align:middle line:90% I mean, and you've really studied this, and it's creating two different ecosystems 377 00:19:50.829 --> 00:19:54.400 align:middle line:90% for news in this country. There's one, one ecosystem on the right 378 00:19:54.400 --> 00:19:56.430 align:middle line:90% and the other for the mainstream media. 379 00:19:56.430 --> 00:19:59.839 align:middle line:90% And one is sort of full time pushing Trump all the time, 380 00:19:59.839 --> 00:20:02.788 align:middle line:90% and the other is sort of saying, on the one hand, on the other hand. 381 00:20:02.788 --> 00:20:05.768 align:middle line:90% So there's asymmetry between these two, right? Isn't it? 382 00:20:05.768 --> 00:20:07.929 align:middle line:90% There a hundred percent is, and it, it affects everything 383 00:20:07.929 --> 00:20:10.819 align:middle line:90% about this election season. Because every single moment 384 00:20:10.819 --> 00:20:14.409 align:middle line:90% that Biden misspeaks or takes a misstep, it's gonna be all over TikTok. 385 00:20:14.409 --> 00:20:17.718 align:middle line:90% It's gonna be all over CNN and MSNBC, as well as Fox. 386 00:20:17.718 --> 00:20:21.828 align:middle line:90% Every day of bad news for Trump is covered up by Fox, period. 387 00:20:21.828 --> 00:20:22.879 align:middle line:90% It's just that simple. 388 00:20:22.879 --> 00:20:24.548 align:middle line:90% The other day, Tucker Carlson, for instance, 389 00:20:24.548 --> 00:20:28.258 align:middle line:90% was having some long monologue with his guest, uh, Alex Jones, 390 00:20:28.258 --> 00:20:31.479 align:middle line:90% about the fact that, as they put it, Joe Biden is wandering around the house 391 00:20:31.479 --> 00:20:34.965 align:middle line:90% without his clothes on, which is, of course, a canard. It's lunacy. 392 00:20:34.965 --> 00:20:35.623 align:middle line:90% Made up. 393 00:20:35.623 --> 00:20:37.233 align:middle line:90% It's completely made up. 394 00:20:37.233 --> 00:20:40.733 align:middle line:90% And there is some portion of Americans that they are so, 395 00:20:40.733 --> 00:20:43.843 align:middle line:90% to go back to this burnout question, some of them are so sick of politics 396 00:20:43.843 --> 00:20:47.032 align:middle line:90% that they don't want to sit down and read a story about the CHIPS Act, 397 00:20:47.032 --> 00:20:48.882 align:middle line:90% which is actually reviving manufacturing. 398 00:20:48.882 --> 00:20:51.152 align:middle line:90% What they want to read is a story about something like that 399 00:20:51.152 --> 00:20:53.501 align:middle line:90% or just hear a clip on it and that's the real risk. 400 00:20:53.501 --> 00:20:56.172 align:middle line:90% Well, the other challenge of political journalism, though, 401 00:20:56.172 --> 00:20:58.961 align:middle line:90% is almost the exact opposite problem, which is that, 402 00:20:58.961 --> 00:21:03.448 align:middle line:90% in Washington, in my, sadly, long experience, we tend to overstate 403 00:21:03.448 --> 00:21:08.689 align:middle line:90% the role of ideology and legislation and, you know, the fights that make up 404 00:21:08.689 --> 00:21:12.790 align:middle line:90% the day to day life of Washington, in the end, especially when it comes 405 00:21:12.790 --> 00:21:15.099 align:middle line:90% to our presidential campaigns in the modern era, 406 00:21:15.099 --> 00:21:17.860 align:middle line:90% as a result of television, as a result of how we communicate, 407 00:21:17.860 --> 00:21:21.039 align:middle line:90% as a result of, you know, the increasing powers vested 408 00:21:21.039 --> 00:21:22.590 align:middle line:90% in the imperial presidency. 409 00:21:22.590 --> 00:21:24.311 align:middle line:90% Americans are not going to make their vote up 410 00:21:24.311 --> 00:21:27.526 align:middle line:90% based on the CHIPS Act, no matter how good and worthy that is. 411 00:21:27.526 --> 00:21:31.146 align:middle line:90% We tend to vote on personality. We tend to think contradictory things. 412 00:21:31.146 --> 00:21:33.491 align:middle line:90% Well, I don't know, as we move into this year, 413 00:21:33.491 --> 00:21:37.637 align:middle line:90% I think there are some issues that probably will matter to people 414 00:21:37.637 --> 00:21:40.281 align:middle line:90% that are not just about people's personalities. 415 00:21:40.281 --> 00:21:45.285 align:middle line:90% For one thing, I think the backlash on the subject of abortion 416 00:21:45.285 --> 00:21:45.785 align:middle line:90% I agree. 417 00:21:45.785 --> 00:21:49.670 align:middle line:90% against the Supreme Court and the Dobbs decision is something 418 00:21:49.670 --> 00:21:52.025 align:middle line:90% that's very much, we've seen it playing out 419 00:21:52.025 --> 00:21:54.482 align:middle line:90% across the country in kind of amazing ways. 420 00:21:54.482 --> 00:21:59.831 align:middle line:90% In red states, people have come out and said, we do not want to lose 421 00:21:59.831 --> 00:22:02.244 align:middle line:90% access to legal abortions. 422 00:22:02.244 --> 00:22:04.697 align:middle line:90% And where it's on the ballot. Not with candidates- 423 00:22:04.697 --> 00:22:06.577 align:middle line:90% Where it's on the ballot- 424 00:22:06.577 --> 00:22:08.565 align:middle line:90% They didn't elect Democrats in Kansas, 425 00:22:08.565 --> 00:22:11.331 align:middle line:90% but what they did do is pass a referendum. 426 00:22:11.331 --> 00:22:13.442 align:middle line:90% But you've got one candidate in the, 427 00:22:13.442 --> 00:22:17.945 align:middle line:90% for the presidency who believes in legal access to abortion 428 00:22:17.945 --> 00:22:21.727 align:middle line:90% and you have another who appointed the Supreme Court justices 429 00:22:21.727 --> 00:22:23.703 align:middle line:90% who took that right away from people. 430 00:22:23.703 --> 00:22:27.274 align:middle line:90% So, I think that is an actual issue that matters to people. 431 00:22:27.274 --> 00:22:29.740 align:middle line:90% I think the economy actually matters to people. 432 00:22:29.740 --> 00:22:34.388 align:middle line:90% I think that the Biden White House was surprised and kind of in a bubble 433 00:22:34.388 --> 00:22:39.420 align:middle line:90% and didn't see how much the cost of groceries was really bothering 434 00:22:39.420 --> 00:22:42.748 align:middle line:90% people across this country. I think inflation really hurt Biden. 435 00:22:42.748 --> 00:22:47.163 align:middle line:90% And then I'm hearing from people that, at least for Democrats, 436 00:22:47.163 --> 00:22:50.630 align:middle line:90% this issue of what's happening in Israel is becoming 437 00:22:50.630 --> 00:22:56.061 align:middle line:90% a complicated issue for young voters and dividing those who were, you know, 438 00:22:56.061 --> 00:22:58.659 align:middle line:90% worried about Palestinian suffering. 439 00:22:58.659 --> 00:23:01.710 align:middle line:90% I mean, I do think these things do matter to people. 440 00:23:01.710 --> 00:23:07.402 align:middle line:90% But they have to be sold and pushed by candidates who articulate them 441 00:23:07.402 --> 00:23:09.401 align:middle line:90% in ways that make people care. 442 00:23:09.401 --> 00:23:12.375 align:middle line:90% Here's my next big blunt question. I think this is for you, Evan. 443 00:23:12.375 --> 00:23:15.546 align:middle line:90% Is there any chance Biden would change his mind and drop out? 444 00:23:15.546 --> 00:23:18.620 align:middle line:90% There is always a chance. However, I will tell you 445 00:23:18.620 --> 00:23:22.851 align:middle line:90% that my reporting… really almost astonished me 446 00:23:22.851 --> 00:23:26.657 align:middle line:90% with how this man has no doubts. 447 00:23:26.657 --> 00:23:29.656 align:middle line:90% He believes he's the only one that can beat Donald Trump again. 448 00:23:29.656 --> 00:23:33.038 align:middle line:90% He believes he is the only one. And now look, you can have, 449 00:23:33.038 --> 00:23:37.285 align:middle line:90% and we can have a real conversation about whether he is wrong about that. 450 00:23:37.285 --> 00:23:40.677 align:middle line:90% But, what I think is important to point out is, he is not sitting there 451 00:23:40.677 --> 00:23:44.058 align:middle line:90% listening to all of the discussion and saying to himself, you know what? 452 00:23:44.058 --> 00:23:49.112 align:middle line:90% I think they might be right. He is not. I can say that with total clarity. 453 00:23:49.112 --> 00:23:54.025 align:middle line:90% And I think that's interesting to me. That the level of conviction is going 454 00:23:54.025 --> 00:23:58.728 align:middle line:90% to go down in history as either having been an extraordinary case 455 00:23:58.728 --> 00:24:03.281 align:middle line:90% of resisting all of what he would call the chattering class and the talk 456 00:24:03.281 --> 00:24:05.950 align:middle line:90% and everything else, or it will go down in history 457 00:24:05.950 --> 00:24:07.899 align:middle line:90% as having been a terrible miscalculation. 458 00:24:07.948 --> 00:24:09.482 align:middle line:90% So it sounds like there's a lot of worries 459 00:24:09.493 --> 00:24:12.166 align:middle line:90% about the second half of the football game, the second half, 460 00:24:12.166 --> 00:24:14.145 align:middle line:90% what's going to happen, is he going to be declining, 461 00:24:14.145 --> 00:24:15.722 align:middle line:90% is he going to be mentally fit for office. 462 00:24:15.722 --> 00:24:18.512 align:middle line:90% But he just wants to make sure he wins at halftime. 463 00:24:18.826 --> 00:24:21.303 align:middle line:90% He just wants to make sure he has more points on the board 464 00:24:21.303 --> 00:24:23.658 align:middle line:90% to beat Trump at halftime and to have a second term. 465 00:24:24.316 --> 00:24:26.893 align:middle line:90% I bring that up to ask, what is the likelihood 466 00:24:26.893 --> 00:24:30.396 align:middle line:90% of Kamala Harris being president in the next four years? 467 00:24:30.676 --> 00:24:33.591 align:middle line:90% Again, an unknowable, but it's a higher percentage 468 00:24:33.591 --> 00:24:35.263 align:middle line:90% than it usually is for a vice president. 469 00:24:35.263 --> 00:24:38.436 align:middle line:90% It is. And I think part of the challenge for her is that 470 00:24:38.436 --> 00:24:41.954 align:middle line:90% when you talk to people who spend all day long in focus groups 471 00:24:41.954 --> 00:24:45.138 align:middle line:90% with voters, they will tell you that one of the most consistent answers is 472 00:24:45.731 --> 00:24:48.064 align:middle line:90% who is Kamala Harris? She's invisible to us. 473 00:24:48.064 --> 00:24:51.178 align:middle line:90% And that's a whole question about, you know, the degree to which the public 474 00:24:51.178 --> 00:24:54.128 align:middle line:90% and the press has paid attention to the substance of her work, 475 00:24:54.128 --> 00:24:57.073 align:middle line:90% not the personality, not the sort of mistakes 476 00:24:57.073 --> 00:24:58.253 align:middle line:90% that she's made in speeches. 477 00:24:58.253 --> 00:25:00.539 align:middle line:90% But is she doing the work of the job? That's a whole question. 478 00:25:01.003 --> 00:25:05.300 align:middle line:90% Look, I actually think, though, that what this comes down to is that 479 00:25:05.600 --> 00:25:09.560 align:middle line:90% the Democrats are going to be saying to people in November that, yes, 480 00:25:09.560 --> 00:25:13.780 align:middle line:90% you may be worried about Joe Biden at the age of 86, which is way later 481 00:25:13.780 --> 00:25:15.973 align:middle line:90% than anybody should ever have been president, 482 00:25:15.973 --> 00:25:17.317 align:middle line:90% according to the founders. 483 00:25:17.787 --> 00:25:20.675 align:middle line:90% And yet, we know what Donald Trump is right now. 484 00:25:20.675 --> 00:25:24.925 align:middle line:90% We know what he is right now. He is a man who is possessed 485 00:25:24.925 --> 00:25:30.043 align:middle line:90% by his own self- pitying, self-narrative, who is possessed by the fantasy, 486 00:25:30.043 --> 00:25:33.297 align:middle line:90% the hallucination, that he won the 2020 election. 487 00:25:33.673 --> 00:25:35.735 align:middle line:90% And that is your choice, my dear voter. 488 00:25:35.735 --> 00:25:37.447 align:middle line:90% That's basically what Democrats are going to say. 489 00:25:37.447 --> 00:25:38.118 align:middle line:90% And they're going to say… 490 00:25:38.118 --> 00:25:40.189 align:middle line:90% Yeah, they're going to use the word dictator a lot. 491 00:25:40.189 --> 00:25:42.883 align:middle line:90% He uses it himself. I mean, the other thing is, 492 00:25:42.883 --> 00:25:45.099 align:middle line:90% they're also going to say, and this is really important, 493 00:25:46.139 --> 00:25:48.935 align:middle line:90% take a look at your life, American. Today, right now, 494 00:25:49.167 --> 00:25:51.848 align:middle line:90% violent crime is at a near 50 year low. 495 00:25:52.136 --> 00:25:56.685 align:middle line:90% The stock market has broken records over and over in the last few weeks. 496 00:25:57.159 --> 00:26:01.699 align:middle line:90% Unemployment is below 3%. All of these are the kinds of indicators 497 00:26:01.699 --> 00:26:05.897 align:middle line:90% that history tells us really do end up helping an incumbent president 498 00:26:06.188 --> 00:26:10.830 align:middle line:90% in the moment of the key decision, but the thing that is most important 499 00:26:10.840 --> 00:26:15.237 align:middle line:90% of all is whether or not those people, those very few people, 500 00:26:15.237 --> 00:26:19.434 align:middle line:90% by some estimates about 5.5 million people in the swing states, 501 00:26:19.434 --> 00:26:22.295 align:middle line:90% that those are the people, whether they come out to vote or not. 502 00:26:22.295 --> 00:26:24.616 align:middle line:90% Because this thing, I mean, you could boil this whole conversation 503 00:26:24.616 --> 00:26:29.274 align:middle line:90% down to one line, which is this thing right now is a dead heat. It is a tie. 504 00:26:29.586 --> 00:26:33.109 align:middle line:90% And if Democrats stay home, it's probably going to go to Donald Trump. 505 00:26:33.544 --> 00:26:36.863 align:middle line:90% You know, we should mention one other dynamic in this race, 506 00:26:36.863 --> 00:26:40.118 align:middle line:90% which is that, that Trump has to win. 507 00:26:40.510 --> 00:26:43.886 align:middle line:90% If he can get himself out of legal jeopardy. 508 00:26:44.078 --> 00:26:48.055 align:middle line:90% He has a more of a motive to run than almost anybody who's ever run 509 00:26:48.055 --> 00:26:51.911 align:middle line:90% for president before, because if he can take over the Justice Department, 510 00:26:51.911 --> 00:26:55.890 align:middle line:90% which he would be able to do in a second term, he can then get out 511 00:26:55.890 --> 00:26:59.873 align:middle line:90% from under these prosecutions, maybe not the state ones, 512 00:26:59.873 --> 00:27:03.423 align:middle line:90% but he can certainly get out of the federal ones. So this is really, 513 00:27:03.423 --> 00:27:05.611 align:middle line:90% truly, it's not just an election. 514 00:27:05.611 --> 00:27:07.913 align:middle line:90% This is also his get out of jail free card. 515 00:27:07.913 --> 00:27:10.979 align:middle line:90% And that's one of the things that people have to decide. 516 00:27:11.176 --> 00:27:15.264 align:middle line:90% Do you want to help him escape accountability legally 517 00:27:15.264 --> 00:27:17.310 align:middle line:90% because that's what this election is also about. 518 00:27:18.070 --> 00:27:21.083 align:middle line:90% Next blunt question, then. If it's Biden versus Trump, 519 00:27:21.315 --> 00:27:24.843 align:middle line:90% why do we not have a third party contender who's coming in 520 00:27:24.853 --> 00:27:27.688 align:middle line:90% and running away with the race and running away with the presidency? 521 00:27:27.808 --> 00:27:30.489 align:middle line:90% Unfortunately, we do have third party contenders, 522 00:27:30.489 --> 00:27:34.141 align:middle line:90% but they are not viable candidates for the presidency. 523 00:27:34.141 --> 00:27:37.103 align:middle line:90% They are spoilers or potential spoilers. And- 524 00:27:37.191 --> 00:27:40.134 align:middle line:90% Why? Why is RFK not being taken more seriously, for example? 525 00:27:40.134 --> 00:27:42.993 align:middle line:90% Well, first of all, he espouses views that I think are, 526 00:27:42.993 --> 00:27:47.930 align:middle line:90% you know, dangerous, ignorant, uninformed and untrue, but more important, 527 00:27:47.930 --> 00:27:52.270 align:middle line:90% but other than that, I, look, we have a history of recent history 528 00:27:52.560 --> 00:27:56.533 align:middle line:90% of third party spoilers as opposed to third party viable candidates. 529 00:27:56.831 --> 00:28:01.786 align:middle line:90% If it weren't for Ralph Nader's third party campaign in Florida 530 00:28:01.786 --> 00:28:06.440 align:middle line:90% in 2000, which came down to literally about 500 votes in Florida, 531 00:28:06.440 --> 00:28:10.337 align:middle line:90% and Ralph Nader essentially was the decisive factor in that. 532 00:28:10.337 --> 00:28:15.657 align:middle line:90% In 2016, Jill Stein's candidacy arguably was the decisive factor 533 00:28:15.657 --> 00:28:16.805 align:middle line:90% in Donald Trump's victory. 534 00:28:16.805 --> 00:28:21.122 align:middle line:90% So I take very seriously the possibility of these various- 535 00:28:21.122 --> 00:28:24.820 align:middle line:90% and there's not just RFK Jr.- but various third party candidates 536 00:28:24.820 --> 00:28:27.884 align:middle line:90% and potential candidates who actually could decide the outcome of this race. 537 00:28:29.358 --> 00:28:31.537 align:middle line:90% You know what's fascinating? If you go back all the way 538 00:28:31.537 --> 00:28:34.389 align:middle line:90% to the history of the Civil War, basically third party candidates tend 539 00:28:34.419 --> 00:28:37.159 align:middle line:90% to hurt the incumbent because their whole basis 540 00:28:37.199 --> 00:28:40.390 align:middle line:90% for being in the race is to say, I know you don't like these options, 541 00:28:40.390 --> 00:28:43.980 align:middle line:90% so consider me. And if you look at it, the number of people that vote 542 00:28:44.310 --> 00:28:47.370 align:middle line:90% for third party candidates changes wildly from election to election, 543 00:28:47.370 --> 00:28:51.574 align:middle line:90% depending on how much people are aware of how much the history tells us 544 00:28:51.574 --> 00:28:54.614 align:middle line:90% that they can be spoilers. Take, for example, in 1992, 545 00:28:54.614 --> 00:28:58.389 align:middle line:90% Ross Perot running against the incumbent George H. W. Bush 546 00:28:58.389 --> 00:29:02.795 align:middle line:90% got 19 percent of the vote by saying that Bush hadn't done enough to get jobs. 547 00:29:02.795 --> 00:29:05.493 align:middle line:90% Remember, he talked about the giant sucking sound and so on. 548 00:29:05.493 --> 00:29:08.354 align:middle line:90% In 2016, Susan just mentioned, absolutely right. 549 00:29:08.354 --> 00:29:11.709 align:middle line:90% The third party candidates got a total of about 5 percent 550 00:29:11.709 --> 00:29:13.385 align:middle line:90% of the vote in the battleground states. 551 00:29:13.610 --> 00:29:15.852 align:middle line:90% But in 2020, when people understood 552 00:29:15.852 --> 00:29:18.987 align:middle line:90% that this was an absolute dead heat and that it would come down 553 00:29:18.987 --> 00:29:21.678 align:middle line:90% to every single vote, third party candidates only got 554 00:29:21.678 --> 00:29:25.164 align:middle line:90% about 1.5% of the vote. So it matters tremendously 555 00:29:25.164 --> 00:29:27.968 align:middle line:90% how much people understand what the stakes are and how close it is. 556 00:29:28.104 --> 00:29:30.599 align:middle line:90% So we've described so many X factors here, age, 557 00:29:30.615 --> 00:29:34.549 align:middle line:90% health of the candidates, all these issues, third party candidates. 558 00:29:35.333 --> 00:29:36.939 align:middle line:90% Let's say it is Biden and Trump in the fall. 559 00:29:37.133 --> 00:29:41.463 align:middle line:90% Here's another X factor. Will they debate? Because I'm thinking, no, 560 00:29:41.615 --> 00:29:43.492 align:middle line:90% there's not going to be general election debates. 561 00:29:43.700 --> 00:29:48.254 align:middle line:90% It's going to be a campaign like none we've seen. No debate. 562 00:29:48.254 --> 00:29:49.278 align:middle line:90% I would bet on that. 563 00:29:49.430 --> 00:29:51.105 align:middle line:90% Is that mostly because Trump doesn't want to do it 564 00:29:51.105 --> 00:29:52.126 align:middle line:90% or Biden doesn't want to do it? 565 00:29:52.424 --> 00:29:55.393 align:middle line:90% You know, the truth is, I think neither of them wants to do it. 566 00:29:55.897 --> 00:29:56.961 align:middle line:90% So they'll blame the other guy. 567 00:29:57.055 --> 00:29:57.555 align:middle line:90% [ALL LAUGHS] 568 00:29:58.425 --> 00:30:01.266 align:middle line:90% I would be shocked if there's a debate between Donald Trump 569 00:30:01.266 --> 00:30:02.644 align:middle line:90% and Joe Biden this fall. 570 00:30:02.644 --> 00:30:05.459 align:middle line:90% I think that's so sad. So disappointing. 571 00:30:05.459 --> 00:30:09.018 align:middle line:90% Remember that Donald Trump has already blown up that norm 572 00:30:09.018 --> 00:30:12.341 align:middle line:90% in the Republican primaries this year, so it's not even a theoretical discussion 573 00:30:12.341 --> 00:30:15.298 align:middle line:90% in the sense that it's the first time you had a situation 574 00:30:15.298 --> 00:30:19.109 align:middle line:90% where the Republican frontrunner essentially flouted even the need 575 00:30:19.109 --> 00:30:23.769 align:middle line:90% to appear in front of Republican voters in order to lock up the nomination. 576 00:30:23.769 --> 00:30:27.883 align:middle line:90% So he's already established that precedent and you know, if you're Joe Biden, 577 00:30:27.883 --> 00:30:30.892 align:middle line:90% the president of the United States, and imagine that there already has been 578 00:30:30.892 --> 00:30:33.852 align:middle line:90% one of these trials taking place, you have an easy out too, because you say, 579 00:30:34.100 --> 00:30:37.326 align:middle line:90% well, I'm not gonna debate a felon. You know, he's not worthy 580 00:30:37.482 --> 00:30:40.300 align:middle line:90% to sit in the office of president of the United States- 581 00:30:40.300 --> 00:30:42.192 align:middle line:90% I think it's an, I'm with you, Brian. 582 00:30:42.192 --> 00:30:46.050 align:middle line:90% I think it's an incredible loss for voters. I mean, this is, 583 00:30:46.050 --> 00:30:50.500 align:middle line:90% a debate is how you get to see the clash of ideas. And we've had, 584 00:30:50.500 --> 00:30:53.425 align:middle line:90% in this country, a history of phenomenal debates. 585 00:30:53.425 --> 00:30:56.519 align:middle line:90% You know, Lincoln and Douglas and going back to, you know, 586 00:30:56.519 --> 00:31:00.822 align:middle line:90% Nixon and JFK, I mean, these things really are important for elections 587 00:31:00.822 --> 00:31:04.339 align:middle line:90% and it's kind of a travesty that it's not likely to happen this year. 588 00:31:04.339 --> 00:31:09.463 align:middle line:90% Also it puts so much pressure on the press then. We have to be the ones 589 00:31:09.463 --> 00:31:14.228 align:middle line:90% who really draw out their differences and get beneath the surface 590 00:31:14.228 --> 00:31:17.656 align:middle line:90% and really hold them to account for their views 591 00:31:17.738 --> 00:31:20.013 align:middle line:90% because they're not going to do it to each other this way. 592 00:31:20.797 --> 00:31:24.124 align:middle line:90% If Biden is re-elected, won't he come under instant pressure 593 00:31:24.124 --> 00:31:25.545 align:middle line:90% to pardon Donald Trump? 594 00:31:26.729 --> 00:31:28.204 align:middle line:90% I don't think he's going to pardon- 595 00:31:28.204 --> 00:31:31.734 align:middle line:90% I think he's already said, in fact, that he wouldn't do that. 596 00:31:31.734 --> 00:31:33.188 align:middle line:90% He's already said that publicly. 597 00:31:33.188 --> 00:31:37.010 align:middle line:90% Yeah, you know, Biden believes that the process 598 00:31:37.010 --> 00:31:41.574 align:middle line:90% of accountability of punishing people for crimes committed is essential 599 00:31:41.574 --> 00:31:44.540 align:middle line:90% to a functioning democracy. And I don't think there's any reason 600 00:31:44.540 --> 00:31:47.170 align:middle line:90% to believe that he would actually want to pardon Donald Trump. 601 00:31:47.170 --> 00:31:50.371 align:middle line:90% Isn't there then reason to believe we're going to see street protests 602 00:31:50.371 --> 00:31:52.852 align:middle line:90% and possible violence a la January 6th? 603 00:31:52.852 --> 00:31:54.850 align:middle line:90% I think that's very possible. I can tell you 604 00:31:54.850 --> 00:31:59.791 align:middle line:90% that Joe Biden is absolutely sure, that no matter what happens, 605 00:31:59.791 --> 00:32:03.785 align:middle line:90% Donald Trump is not going to accept a loss in 2024. 606 00:32:03.785 --> 00:32:09.288 align:middle line:90% He believes that the man is incapable of doing it. That it is such an injury 607 00:32:09.288 --> 00:32:12.381 align:middle line:90% to his own self mythology that he wouldn't do it. 608 00:32:12.381 --> 00:32:15.503 align:middle line:90% And so Biden is preparing, frankly, for the prospect 609 00:32:15.503 --> 00:32:20.650 align:middle line:90% that Donald Trump will never concede a loss and that he will do 610 00:32:20.650 --> 00:32:24.317 align:middle line:90% whatever he can, whatever he can to try to prevent that. 611 00:32:24.317 --> 00:32:26.280 align:middle line:90% This has suddenly turned quite dark, Evan. 612 00:32:26.280 --> 00:32:29.090 align:middle line:90% I don't think that you could look at the last few years 613 00:32:29.090 --> 00:32:33.635 align:middle line:90% without having an analysis like that. And Biden has spent a lot of time. 614 00:32:33.635 --> 00:32:35.658 align:middle line:90% I think this is something that's easy to miss from the outside. 615 00:32:35.658 --> 00:32:40.512 align:middle line:90% Biden has spent a lot of time thinking about Donald Trump. 616 00:32:40.818 --> 00:32:42.824 align:middle line:90% Imagine yourself in Joe Biden's shoes. 617 00:32:42.824 --> 00:32:46.625 align:middle line:90% This is a man who you beat once, who tried to steal the election, 618 00:32:46.625 --> 00:32:51.687 align:middle line:90% not just from America, but from you. And now he's going to try to do it again. 619 00:32:52.711 --> 00:32:54.030 align:middle line:90% Imagine what that does to you. 620 00:32:54.030 --> 00:32:57.489 align:middle line:90% I, I think people also who are close to the criminal justice system 621 00:32:57.489 --> 00:33:02.615 align:middle line:90% really worry that there may be violence surrounding these courthouse trials 622 00:33:02.624 --> 00:33:07.370 align:middle line:90% of Trump as well if he is convicted. And there's already a lot of worry. 623 00:33:07.418 --> 00:33:09.496 align:middle line:90% There've been threats to the judges. 624 00:33:09.872 --> 00:33:12.217 align:middle line:90% Witnesses are in a threatened position. 625 00:33:12.465 --> 00:33:14.173 align:middle line:90% There's a lot of a sort of a sense 626 00:33:14.173 --> 00:33:18.457 align:middle line:90% that people are on edge about violence surrounding this election. 627 00:33:18.873 --> 00:33:21.361 align:middle line:90% I've asked a lot of questions. But I'd like to know 628 00:33:21.361 --> 00:33:24.287 align:middle line:90% if there's any I'm missing. What are the most pressing questions 629 00:33:24.639 --> 00:33:26.506 align:middle line:90% that each of you have about this election season? 630 00:33:26.989 --> 00:33:29.699 align:middle line:90% I remember I did an interview with John Meacham in which 631 00:33:30.091 --> 00:33:34.608 align:middle line:90% the question came up, if Trump were convicted and then elected, 632 00:33:34.784 --> 00:33:40.613 align:middle line:90% can he pardon himself? And the answer is apparently yes. 633 00:33:40.973 --> 00:33:44.299 align:middle line:90% And according to the historian John Meacham, he looked at it 634 00:33:44.307 --> 00:33:47.364 align:middle line:90% and he sort of thought, "Hey, this is the sort of the ultimate 635 00:33:47.364 --> 00:33:51.260 align:middle line:90% kind of thing that Trump would do." You know, um, just pardon himself. 636 00:33:51.745 --> 00:33:54.769 align:middle line:90% Right, that is a very big question. 637 00:33:55.217 --> 00:33:57.003 align:middle line:90% And we're gonna get into Trump's trials 638 00:33:57.003 --> 00:33:59.032 align:middle line:90% in more detail next week on the show. 639 00:33:59.664 --> 00:34:02.160 align:middle line:90% For now, Jane, Evan, Susan, thank you so much 640 00:34:02.160 --> 00:34:04.497 align:middle line:90% for bringing "The New Yorkers" political scene to us. 641 00:34:04.729 --> 00:34:07.263 align:middle line:90% Thanks, Brian. So good to be with you. 642 00:34:07.263 --> 00:34:08.277 align:middle line:90% Thank you, Brian. 643 00:34:08.277 --> 00:34:09.366 align:middle line:90% That was terrific. Thanks, Brian. 644 00:34:09.366 --> 00:34:09.866 align:middle line:90% [MUSIC FADES IN] 645 00:34:12.389 --> 00:34:15.235 align:middle line:90% You can listen to "The Political Scene" on Apple Podcasts. 646 00:34:15.369 --> 00:34:17.679 align:middle line:90% We'll include a link for you on our show notes page. 647 00:34:22.946 --> 00:34:23.446 align:middle line:90% [MUSIC FADES OUT]